Chargeback prevention leader outlines how agentic commerce, falling fintech costs, and Visa monitoring changes will reshape merchant payments
December 2025 – Chargeblast, a leading provider of chargeback prevention and payment dispute management solutions, today released its 2026 Payments Industry Predictions, identifying three major forces expected to reshape the payments ecosystem over the next year. The report focuses on the rapid rise of AI-driven commerce, declining fintech costs, and new regulatory pressures that will redefine how merchants manage risk, costs, and payment relationships.
According to Chargeblast, the payments industry is entering a pivotal transition period. Advances in artificial intelligence, shifting economics of software development, and Visa’s expanded Acquirer Monitoring Program are converging faster than many merchants are prepared for.
“2026 will be less about incremental change and more about structural realignment,” said Qi Cao, Founder and CEO of Chargeblast. “Merchants that adapt early will gain margin and stability. Those that wait may face higher dispute exposure and reduced access to processing.”
Prediction One: AI-Powered Commerce Will Outpace Regulation
Chargeblast forecasts that agentic commerce, where AI systems initiate and complete transactions on behalf of consumers, will advance faster than existing regulatory and card network frameworks. This gap is expected to introduce new dispute scenarios that current chargeback reason codes and liability models were not designed to address. Merchants may temporarily bear increased risk as card networks and regulators work to define accountability and authorization standards for AI-initiated payments.
Prediction Two: Fintech Costs Will Decline Sharply
The report predicts that AI-driven commoditization of fintech software will significantly reduce payment processing and operational costs. Over the next three to five years, average processing fees are expected to trend downward from 2 to 3 percent toward 1 to 1.5 percent for many merchants. For small and mid-sized businesses, this could translate into annual savings of $17,000 to $20,000 through lower processing fees and reduced software subscription costs.
Prediction Three: Visa Monitoring Changes Will Reshape High-Risk Processing
Visa’s enhanced Acquirer Monitoring Program is expected to drive high-risk merchants away from specialized processors and toward large, diversified payment platforms. As compliance responsibility shifts more heavily to acquirers, processors with concentrated high-risk portfolios may limit exposure or exit the market altogether. Merchants operating in high-dispute industries will increasingly need strong prevention strategies to maintain stable processing relationships.
Chargeblast’s full 2026 Payments Industry Predictions report provides detailed analysis and practical guidance for merchants preparing for these shifts.
About Chargeblast
Chargeblast provides chargeback prevention and payment dispute management solutions designed to help merchants reduce disputes, protect revenue, and maintain healthy payment processing relationships.
Get more info at www.chargeblast.com.
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