The election of Donald Trump as president could reshape the payments industry in significant ways. From stablecoins to earned wage access (EWA) policies, his administration is poised to impact federal antitrust priorities and the development of new digital payment systems. These changes could ripple through emerging fintech companies like Stripe and Block, as well as established giants like Visa and Amazon.
While no one can predict the exact policies Trump’s administration might pursue, industry experts are already considering how his leadership could redefine the payments landscape.
Rethinking CFPB Guidelines
The CFPB, known for its recent focus on regulating emerging financial tools, could take a different approach under Trump. The Biden administration, led by CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, has pushed for stricter rules on services like buy now, pay later (BNPL) financing and earned wage access (EWA). For instance, BNPL providers were recently required to follow the same consumer protection rules as credit card companies.
However, experts predict that a Trump-appointed CFPB director would likely scale back these efforts. This could involve slowing down enforcement actions, issuing smaller penalties, or even revisiting interpretive rules. Adam Rust, from the Consumer Federation of America, highlights that these policies are "vulnerable to reversal" under new leadership.
What This Means for Consumers
The shift in CFPB priorities could lead to fewer protections for consumers. Without strong enforcement, scams, fraud, and deceptive practices might not face significant consequences. As Rust points out, “Consumers still expect to be protected,” but the agency could face resource cuts and leadership changes that reduce its effectiveness.
For example, during Trump’s first term, the CFPB adopted a more lenient stance on earned wage access services. These programs, which allow workers to access their earned wages before payday, were given a "safe harbor" under certain conditions. However, Chopra’s team reversed this in July, tightening the rules and sparking industry backlash. A Trump administration could return to a less restrictive policy, potentially benefiting some companies while leaving consumers with fewer safeguards.
What Changes Could Mean for Credit Card Rates
Credit card users may see significant changes under a Trump administration, particularly when it comes to interest rates and fees. During his campaign, Trump proposed a temporary cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, arguing that rates of 25% or 30% are too high for Americans trying to recover financially. If enacted, this proposal could reduce borrowing costs for millions of cardholders, at least for a while.
At the same time, the Biden administration’s push to eliminate junk fees, such as credit card late fees, could lose momentum under Trump. While both administrations share concerns about reducing financial burdens on households, their approaches differ. Trump’s interest rate cap targets lenders directly, whereas Biden’s policies have focused more on eliminating fees that add to consumers' costs.
Another development to watch is the Credit Card Competition Act, sponsored by Vice President-Elect J.D. Vance. This bill aims to increase competition in card payment networks by requiring banks to provide alternative options beyond Visa and Mastercard for processing transactions. The proposal has sparked intense debate—retailers support it for potentially lowering payment processing costs (like interchange fees), while banks and payment companies argue it’s unnecessary government interference. Although the bill has stalled in Congress, Vance’s position in the administration might revive it, leading to huge shifts in the credit card market.
Trump Allies and Their Role in Crypto Developments
The cryptocurrency policies of Trump’s administration could take a very different direction from those of his first term. Back then, Trump dismissed crypto as a "scam." However, with many in the crypto community now backing him financially, his stance may soften.
One area where this shift could play out is the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21). This Republican-backed bill, which passed in the House but stalled in the Senate, proposes regulating decentralized digital assets as commodities under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than as securities under the stricter Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Trump’s administration could support this approach, creating a friendlier environment for crypto innovation.
At the same time, Trump’s allies are likely to maintain their opposition to a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Instead, the administration could favor private solutions like stablecoins managed by Circle Internet Group, including the USD Coin. Well-regulated stablecoins might strike a balance between the benefits of digital currencies and privacy concerns often associated with government-backed options.
The emerging policies will depend heavily on who holds influence within Trump’s administration. If crypto-friendly figures take prominent roles, the industry could see a wave of regulatory changes to encourage growth and innovation. However, the direction remains tied to Trump’s relationships and political priorities, making the future of crypto under his leadership as unpredictable as the market itself.
Lingering Discontent with Federal Policies
Federal policies have been a sticking point for payments and fintech companies in recent years, with many executives frustrated by what they see as excessive regulatory scrutiny. Under the Biden administration, this discontent has grown as tighter oversight has slowed operations and sparked legal battles across the industry.
Mike Milotich, CFO of Marqeta, highlighted these challenges during an earnings call, pointing to increased regulatory scrutiny in the banking sector as a factor behind the company’s recent underperformance. “We were less efficient in working with our bank partners to launch new programs,” he explained, noting that the first few months of 2024 saw more than ten consent orders issued to banks in their space—double the number from 2023.
Antitrust Actions and Industry Pushback
The federal government’s focus on antitrust issues has further fueled tensions. In September, the Justice Department sued Visa, accusing the company of monopolizing the debit card market. Visa’s CEO, Ryan McInerney, dismissed the lawsuit as “meritless,” arguing that Visa operates in a competitive environment with new players regularly entering the market.
This isn’t the only area where the industry has clashed with regulators. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s (CFPB) proposal to implement open banking—a system designed to give consumers greater control over their financial data—has faced pushback. While the proposal aims to increase competition and make it easier for consumers to switch accounts, trade groups like the Bank Policy Institute have criticized it as overly restrictive and even joined lawsuits to challenge the CFPB.
Could Policies Shift Before January?
The upcoming Trump administration could influence regulatory policies even before taking office. According to Phil Goldfeder, CEO of the American Fintech Council, there’s still time for the current administration to adjust its approach. “There’s still time to work on sound policies that could withstand political shifts,” he said, suggesting that more balanced solutions might emerge if regulators and industry groups find common ground in the months ahead.
For payments and fintech leaders, these unresolved issues signal ongoing challenges. While Trump’s presidency may bring changes, the industry’s complex relationship with federal regulators is unlikely to be resolved overnight.
